Saturday, October 05, 2024
The September Unemployment Rate Dropped To 4.1%
The Labor Department released its unemployment report for September on Friday. It showed a fairly healthy 254,000 jobs were created in the month. That was good enough to reduce the unemployment rate to 4.1% (from 4.2% in August). It's the second straight month the rate dropped by 0.1%.
Here are the relevant statistics for September:
SIZE OF THE CIVILIAN WORK FORCE:
168,699,000
OFFICIAL NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS:
6,834,000
OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:
4.1%
DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT:
Adult men...............3.7%
Adult women...............3.6%
Teens (16-19)...............14.3%
Whites...............3.6%
Blacks...............5.7%
Asians...............4.1%
Hispanics...............5.1%
No HS diploma...............6.8%
HS graduate...............4.0%
Some college...............3.4%
Bachelor's deg. or more...............2.3%
NUMBER OF MARGINALLY-ATTACHED WORKERS (unemployed but not counted):
1,605,000
MORE REALISTIC NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED (official + marginally-attached):
8,439,000
MORE REALISTIC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:
5.0%
Trump Is Promising To Rescue Us From Threats That Exist Only In His Mind
In case you missed it, Trump has been trying to exploit the natural disaster for political gain, claiming he heard that the federal government — Biden — and North Carolina’s Democratic governor are “going out of their way to not help people in Republican areas.” This claim has no basis: Major rescue and recovery operations are underway, and several governors of the affected states — including Republicans — have praised federal efforts. Trump said that Georgia’s Republican governor, Brian Kemp, was “having a hard time getting the president on the phone.” On the contrary, Kemp said that Biden told him “that if there’s other things we need, just to call him directly — which, I appreciate that.”
But then, at this point, Trump’s campaign rests heavily on made-up stuff. And he clearly seems to believe that he needs new material, because the old material seems to be losing some of its effectiveness.
Trump has been a true innovator in political dishonesty. Lots of politicians have misrepresented their personal histories or the content of their policy proposals — Trump does that, too. But he has also constructed a whole dystopian fantasy world, trying to persuade voters that America is a nation with a collapsing economy overrun by violent immigrants.
In reality, America has low inflation and low unemployment, and the average worker’s purchasing power is higher than it was five years ago. Yes, some Americans are struggling, but that was as true when Trump was president as it is now.
At the same time, violent crime, homicides in particular, which rosesignificantly during Trump’s last year in office, has come down and appears to be continuing to fall.
What’s new is that Trump’s vision of America-as-hellscape seems to be losing its political mojo. For example, a new Cook Political Report poll of swing states, while still showing Trump with some advantage on the economy, showed Kamala Harris tied on the issue of who can best deal with inflation and the cost of living, and barely trailing on who can best deal with crime and violence.
So it must be time to conjure a new fake source of fear and outrage.
Where does the insinuation that Biden is denying aid to politically unfriendly disaster areas come from? In part it’s projection: Trump was found to have done something akin to that when he was in the White House. In part it involves condemning Biden and Harris for not immediately visiting the stricken areas.
Biden and Harris, though, were just acting responsibly. In the immediate aftermath of a natural disaster, a high-profile political visitor with a huge security detail is the last thing you want — I mean, politicians aren’t much help rescuing stranded residents and repairing roads, while accommodating their visit would divert personnel and equipment away from the urgent task of saving lives and restoring essential services. Former FEMA officials expressed skepticism about Trump’s visit to Valdosta, Ga., soon after the storm passed, not only because he used the visit to politicize a tragedy, but because such a visit “does eat up resources on the ground.”
But the temptation for Trump to suggest that Biden was playing politics with his hurricane response must have been irresistible, because it so closely fits the template of many of his other claims. . . .
Will it work? I have no idea. What I do know is that it’s more of the same. Trump is promising to rescue us from dire threats that exist only in his mind.
Friday, October 04, 2024
New Poll Has Harris With A 5-Point Lead Over Trump
The chart above reflects the results of the Susquehanna Poll -- done between September 23rd and October 1st of a nationwide sample of 1,001 registered voters, with a 3.2 point margin of error.
About 225,000 Workers Filed For Unemployment Last Week
In the week ending September 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 225,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 218,000 to 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,250, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 224,750 to 225,000.
The Trump Voters In 2024 Really Are Deplorable!
In the 2016 campaign, Hillary Clinton called Trump supporters "deplorable". At that time, it was probably true of many of them, but not all.
There were some who were just good Republicans and voted for their party. They believed that once elected Trump would grow into the job (as other presidents have done). Sadly, they were wrong.
But this is 2024. We know what Trump is like. We know his first term was disastrous. And anyone that has been paying attention to what he wants to do in a second term, has to realize that second term would be disastrous for the nation. And anyone still supporting him has to be deplorable.
Trump wants to deport 11 million immigrants, which would be disastrous for the economy. Anyone who supports that is deplorable.
Trump wants to use the Justice Department to get revenge on his political opponents and others he doesn't like. Anyone who supports that is deplorable.
Trump wants to destroy our democracy by becoming an authoritarian ruler. Anyone who supports that is deplorable.
Trump wants to keep states in charge of denying women reproductive rights. Anyone who supports that is deplorable.
Trump wants to give more tax cuts to billionaires. Anyone who supports that is deplorable.
Trump wants to keep the minimum wage as a poverty wage. Anyone who supports that is deplorable.
Trump wants to overturn the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) even though he has no plan tonsure most Americans. Anyone who supports that is deplorable.
Trump wants to levy a heavy tariff on goods coming from other nations, which would increase prices for American consumers and increase inflation. Anyone who supports that is deplorable.
The word "deplorable" may not have fit every person voting for Trump in 2016. But it is a very fitting description for Trump voters in 2024!
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